4.5 Major crops trade prospects

Grain import and export in China in the first half of 2017

Rice

In the first half of 2017, the total import of rice in China was 2.1361 million tons, an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, respectively accounting for 55.3%, 31.3%, and 6.4% of imports. The expenditure for rice import was US$981 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. Total rice exports over the period were 571,000 tons, up by 349.3%, mainly exported to the Côte d'Ivoire, Republic of Korea, and Liberia (29.5%, 21.0%, and 6.7%, respectively). The value of the export was US$281 million, an increase of 117.8% over 2016.

Wheat

During the first semester of 2017, Chinese wheat imports reached 2.6534 million tons, an increase of 48.2% over 2016. The main sources include Australia (47.4%), the United States (38.2%), and Kazakhstan (7.8%). Imports amounted to US$607 million, up by 40.9%. Wheat exports fell by 11.1% to reach 49,600 tons. Hong Kong (72.7%), Korea (20.7%), and Macao (5.4%) were the main destinations of Chinese wheat exports.

Maize

In the first half of 2017, maize imports totaled 736,000 tons, down by 74.7% year-on-year. The main importing countries were Ukraine and the United States, accounting for 81.3% and 13.5% of imports respectively. Total maize exports were 36,300 tons, up 26.5 times compared to the same period of 2016, mainly exported to Japan (54.8%) and North Korea (38.3%).

Soybean

The total import of soybean was up by 16.2% to 44,808,200 tons in China during the first half of 2017. Brazil and the United States respectively contributed 51.8% and 42.5%, for a total value of US$1,895,500 million, up 6.5% compared to the first six months of 2016. Soybean exports were 63,000 tons, down 11.0%. Export amounts were US$53.5091million, down 14.0%.

Import prospects for major grains in China for 2017

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports increased by 5.7% and 123.3% respectively in 2017. Due to the persistence of domestic and foreign prices, rice imports showed an increasing trend in the first half of 2017. Taking into account the domestic supply and the relaxed demand environment, however, rice imports will reduce, while the exports center of gravity will shift to Africa in the second half of 2017. Rice imports are expected to grow steadily within the quota range, while exports will grow faster across the whole year.

Wheat

China’s wheat imports will increase by 20.7 percent, but exports are projected to drop 4.6% compared with those of 2016. At present, the global supply and demand of wheat is still in a relaxed pattern. The inventory consumption ratio shows the highest level for the past 15 years, and the international wheat prices are expected to fall after the rise. Wheat imports will grow steadily throughout the entire year.

Maize

According to the model forecast results, maize imports decreased by 40.7% in China in 2017, but exports increased by 86.4%. Currently, the stage of supply exceeding demand will continue to inhibit the import in China. The domestic maize prices have been quickly close to the international standards. Foreign maize price advantage does not exist. China's maize imports continue to decline, while exports continue to increase. Maize imports are expected to decline sharply throughout the year in China.

Soybean

Soybean imports will increase by 5.8% while exports will be reduced by 6.7% in 2017. Due to a lack of soybean production, annual soybean imports will remain at a high level, but the growth in imports will slow down. For July 2017, soybean exports are expected to grow because the gap between domestic and international prices is expanding. 

Figure 4.18. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2017 compared to those for 2016 (%)