This bulletin covers the sowing of maize in northeastern Brazil and second maize in Central-South areas; the main maize crop in Central-South has reached harvest time. Rice in Central-South and soybean are also at harvesting stage. Wheat has been sown from the end of April. 

Generally, crop condition in Brazil was average compared to the same period in the previous five years. Nationwide,  the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators shown average weather conditions compared with average (15YA). Rainfall (870 mm) was 1% above average temperature (25.7 °C) was 0.7 °C lower than average. Together with 2% below average radiation, BIOMSS was at same level as the previous five years average. Most states received close to average rainfall except for Sao Paulo and Santa Catarina where rainfall was 22% and 19% below average. It needs to be highlighted that temperature in every major agricultural state was lower than average except Rio Grande Do Sul. RADPAR over each state was also generally lower than average, coinciding with the low-temperature areas. Rainfall dominates the potential Biomass accumulation as indicated by the same trend between rainfall departure and BIOMSS departure over each state.

In spite of average weather conditions, crops in Brazil were still at below average conditions according to the national NDVI profile for Brazil from January to April 2018. Spatial and temporal patterns of crop condition during the monitoring period are shown by NDVI departures cluster and map. Most areas with significantly below average crop condition are located in the Amazonas zone and south of Rio Grande Do Sul State (bordering similarly stressed areas in Uruguay and Argentina) while other areas stayed average or departed little from average. National maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), however, presents lower value only in southern Rio Grande Do Sul State and the Southern Subtropical rangelands zone. Average VCIx value for Brazil was 0.75 during the monitoring period. Almost 99% of arable land was cultivated, 1% above 5YA.

Maize and soybean production for Brazil is projected at 86607 ktons and 97495 ktons, up 3% and 1% compared to that in 2017 season. Rice production is projected at 2% below 2017 mainly due to the lower rainfall.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones are identified forBrazil. They include the Amazonas, Central Savanna, Eastern coastal zone, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, Nordeste, Parana basin, and Southern subtropical rangelands. Over the recent reporting period, only one AEZ (Parana basin) received below average rainfall (-12%). RAIN in all other seven AEZ was above average, ranging from 2% in Central Savannas to 17% on the East Coast. Generally, above average rainfall resulted in lower or average temperature and RADPAR for all the AEZs.

Crop condition in the Central Savanna was generally below average throughout  the monitoring period. Even if weather conditions were close to average, maximum VCI was just 0.54, indicating below-average crop condition mainly due to the significantly below average rainfall during the previous monitoring period. Average condition were insufficient for vegetation to recover.

In the Eastern coastal zone, sufficient rainfall softened the drought effect as described in the previous bulletin. Generally, 17% above average rainfall resulted in 10% above 5YA BIOMSS. Favorable conditions benefited crops there and almost all arable land is cultivated, 2% higher than 5YA. The VCIx value at 0.79 further confirms the favorable crop condition.

Shortage of rainfall in the Parana basin zone resulted in lower than average NDVI and crop condition from late February. BIOMSS was 9% below 5YA which also confirms the inadequate weather. CALF is nevertheless close to 100% because of favourable weather conditions during the previous monitoring period (covering sowing to growing period). Crops are now close to maturity and an average output is expected.

As indicated in national NDVI departure clustering map, crops in the Amazonas zone were generally below average due to lack of rainfall during the previous monitoring period. According to the NDVI profile of the zone, crop condition was significantly below average. Average VCIx is a low 0.63 and CALF is at 5YA level. Since this is still early season for the crops, the output will crucially depend on the weather conditions in the near future.

The Mato Grosso zone, as the top maize and soybean producer in Brazil, covers the states of Mato Grosso and Rondonia, as well as the  northern part of Mato Grosso do Sul. Maize and soybean are at peak biomass development as indicated by the NDVI profile. Weather conditions were slightly above average, resulting in average NDVI but still slightly below that of same season in the previous year. Almost all cropland is cultivated and VCIx is 0.7, which confirms the fair crop condition.

Harvesting of wheat in Southern subtropical rangelands zone was concluded during the monitoring period and weather conditions no longer  impact the output. NDVI profiles presented lower values and low VCIx values (less than 0.5) during the monitoring period indicating unfavorable conditions which may have negative impacts for the next season.

Rice in the Northeastern mixed forest and farmland zone is currently approaching the peak of the season. Favorable conditions with 10% above average rainfall, slightly below average temperature and RADPAR were observed during the monitoring period. However, the NDVI profile presents well below average NDVI mainly due to the late start of the season (see the delay of increasing NDVI). The delay was probably the result of abundant rainfall during the previous season, which hampered the sowing of rice.

In the Nordeste, crops enjoyed favorable conditions with 9% above average rainfall. Rice recovered from the previous dry period and the NDVI profile was well above average. By the end of April, crops reached their development peak and caught up with the optimal condition during the last five years. Above average output of rice is expected.

            Figure 3.13. Brazil’s cropcondition, January-April 2018

                                                                      (a).Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil                (c)  Maximum VCI

(d)  Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(e)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Amazonas

(f)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Savanna

(g)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Mato Grosso

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Nordeste

(j)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Parana basin

(k)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Southern subtropical rangelands

(l)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Eastern coastal zone

Table 3.10. Brazilagro-climatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess anddeparture from 15YA, January – April 2018

Table 3.11. Brazilagronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess anddeparture from 5YA, January – April 2018

Table 3.12.CropWatch-estimatedwheat production for Brazil in 2018 (thousand tons)