In general, Crop Watch indicators indicate that crop condition was above average in the United States over the monitoring period, which covers the heading and harvesting season ofwinter crops and seeding and heading season of summer crops. Overall, the rainfallindicator (RAIN) shows a 33% departure above average, with average temperature(TEMP, +0.2°C) and a 4% decrease in radiation (RADPAR).

Excessive rainfall was recorded in the main winter wheat states, including Oklahoma (+126%), Texas(+101%), and Kansas (+36%). U.S. media reported strong rain causingrecord-breaking floods in May in Oklahoma and Texas, especially in Dallas-FortWorth in Texas. Temperature was close to but below average in Oklahoma (-0.5°C),Texas (-0.4°C), and Kansas (-0.2°C). RADPAR was far below average in Texas(-8%), Oklahoma (-8%), and Kansas (-7%). Some winter crops were damaged byfloods, but abundant rainfall also provided enough soil water for crop growth.As a result, the BIOMSS indicator shows a significant positive departure inTexas (+74%), Oklahoma (+69%), and Kansas (+31%) in general, but low values ofVCIx in northern Texas and in Oklahoma, indicating the negative influence ofexcess water. As mentioned in the description of the North American MPZ(section 2.3), maize and soybeans received abundant rainfall, including in Iowa(RAIN, +15%), Illinois (+59%), Nebraska (+67%), Indiana (+33%), Ohio (+7%), andMinnesota (+1%). This is confirmed by record-breaking VCIx values (>1.0) inmajor maize and soybean producing areas. If favorable weather continues intothe next monitoring period, good production of maize and soybeans can be expected. In Montana and North Dakota, rainfall was below or close to average(-6% and 0%, respectively). A negative NDVI departure after mid-May in the mainbarley producing states indicates a below average output for this crop. Asmentioned in the previous bulletin, severe drought affected western states.This continued in this monitoring period in Washington (RAIN, -50%), Oregon(-24%), Montana (-6%), and the West Coast (-28%). Groundwater depletion in thisregion is a serious long-term risk.

Overall, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) shows a 19% positive departure compared to therecent five-year average; CALF increased by 1%; and VCIx was 0.88. The NDVI development profile showed above average crop condition, at the same level assame as last year, indicating a similar output can be expected. Table B.4 in Annex B presents the estimated production of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean inthe United States in 2015.

Figure3.31. United States crop condition, April-July2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (d)NDVI profiles